UFC 96 Predictions

Taking place in Columbus, Ohio UFC 96 features two important matchups that weigh heavy on the title picture for two divisions. In the main event, Rampage has stepped in to take on Keith Jardine (adding star power to card that had been lacking) in return Dana White has promised him a belt shot with a win. In the second biggest draw, Gabriel Gonzaga is taking on UFC pet project Shane Carwin. If either of these behemoths win in spectacular fashion we’ve got a new legit heavyweight contender. As for the rest of the fights? Well, they’re just for fun…

Gray Maynard vs. Jim Miller

Maynard, the undefeated TUF contestant is facing a slight bump in competition against Jim Miller, and making the leap from Fight Night to his first proper UFC event.  Jim Miller, one half of the amazing Miller Brothers Circus, is hoping to keep his undefeated streak in the Octagon, alive.

Both of these fighters have wrestling backgrounds, but the advantage leans to Maynard who is undoubtedly one of the strongest grapplers in the lightweight division. It’s no secret that Maynard’s gameplan will be and should be, to shoot early, slam Miller and ground and pound. Although Maynard is growing as a mixed martial artist his wrestling is still his only frightening weapon and he should stick to his strength.

Miller is a more well-rounded fighter who has an excellent BJJ game to go with his decent wrestling and above average striking. He is also quicker, and due to his experience, a smarter fighter. Jim should keep this one standing for as long as possible and when eventually taken down look for submissions in scrambles.

This fight will come down to whether Maynard can overpower Miller to the point that he is either too exhausted or too controlled to pull out a sub. Either Maynard will grind his way to a decision or he’ll get caught by the crafty Miller.

Prediction: Jim Miller by triangle choke in the 2nd round

Matt Hamill vs. Mark Munoz

This bout is a collision between the guy who can’t hear and the guy nobody wants to hear about.  Matt Hamill the overrated, deaf, Tito Ortiz protege is hoping to keep his job with the UFC and Munoz, the Phillipino Matt Hamill is a WEC draft up looking to make a name for himself in his UFC debut.

Both of these guys are thick, strong, wrestlers, which should make for a dreary, plodding fight. Although Hamill has shown some decent striking against Bisping and some others, he is not feared standing up, but oddly at times he has chosen to abandon his wrestling in favour of it. He should go back to his strengths and look to control Munoz and do his striking ala Ortiz, from within your opponent’s awful guard.

Munoz too has an excellent wrestling pedigree and is still undefeated, winning the majority of his fights by TKO. He has only basic kickboxing skills but a pretty brutal ground and pound.

Because these two guys are so similar they will probably negate each other’s strengths and this will end in a stalemate of sorts.

Prediction: Matt Hamill by split decision

Matt Brown vs. Pete Sell

If you are Kendall Grove or Brandon Vera you must really hate these guys. While you’re stuck warming up the crowd in the prelims these duffs, who can barely keep a winning record, are on the PPV. This must be how the Toronto Raptors feel when curling gets national coverage over one of their games.

Pete Sell is a supposedly talented fighter who prefers to get his ass kicked in spectacular fashion than win fights. Although he has some great power in his hands and from what Matt Serra says a black belt worthy BJJ game he hasn’t really shown it. Matt Brown, another TUF alumni, has a ton of heart and a well-rounded skill set but can’t seem to consistently win, particularly against anyone good.

Because both of these fighters aren’t afraid to swing, or get hit for that matter, this could turn out to be quite the entertaining fight.  It’s interesting to note though, that despite Sell’s bloodthirst for a KO, he’s never actually knocked any one out, but has been floored twice himself.  Against Matt Brown, who is reportedly tough as nails, he might see the lights fade again.

Sell should not be an idiot here.  He should merely test Brown out on the feet, and the moment things start looking rough, pull guard and work that jiu-jitsu game. The majority of Matt’s losses have come from submissions so it only make sense as a go-to game plan.

Brown on the other hand should just bait Sell into a brawl and with a little footwork and intelligence odds are he’ll drop him or take the decision.

Prediction: Matt Brown by unanimous decision

Shane Carwin vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

This matchup is phenomenal. Two highly skilled heavyweights facing off in a contender matchup for the next shot at the belt presumably.

Gonzaga has been on something of a warpath since losing to Fabricio Werdum last January as he has annihilated anyone the UFC has placed in front of him. He appears focused and aggressive and his striking looks fantastic.

Carwin, a superb wrestler who is undefeated in 10 bouts, has never gone past the first round. He has brutal knockout power and is a huge specimen of a human being. His strength and size allow him to control nearly anyone he is matched against.

Gonzaga’s gameplan should be to keep his distance and work his excellent kicks. For a big man Gonzaga is fairly quick and has KO power to boot (ask Crocop). Circling away from Carwin while attacking in controlled flurries will allow him to do a lot of damage without getting too close where Carwin can latch on and smother him. If the fight does go to the ground Gonzaga must roll and sprawl immediately and NOT pull guard. Being on the bottom against Carwin is a terrible idea despite Gonzaga’s BJJ black belt.

Carwin’s gameplan will be to rush Gonzaga, close the distance, dummy him with a power shot then take side control and beat his head into the canvas. It’s not the headiest of plans, but it has worked before many times for Shane. What he needs to be wary of is Gonzaga’s varied attack. He can’t get lazy and think he’s figured out his rhythms or combos.  Carwin needs to be hyperdefensive standing up and clinch as much as possible and throw uppercuts and elbows when pressed along the cage. Couture beat Gonzaga by doing just that, wearing him down in tight exchanges where his strikes are less effective.

If Carwin wins it will be quickly by dummying Gonzaga with a power shot. If Gonzaga can pull Carwin into later rounds he may change into a drastically different fighter after a couple rounds of punishment. Though Carwin may scare Gabriel early with some knee-dropping shots he is too clever a fighter and will catch Carwin in an armbar or wear him down en route to a TKO.

Prediction: Gabriel Gonzage by TKO in the 3rd round.

Quentin Jackson vs. Keith Jardine

At first glance this fight seems like a waste of time as former title holder Rampage Jackson is widely considered a much more accomplished and skilled fighter than the Dean of Mean. However, MMA is very much about the clash of styles and when it comes down to it, Jardine could turn out to be quite a handful for Rampage.

Rampage is an aggressive fighter with KO power in both hands, decent wrestling, vicious ground and pound and some alright submission defense. His gameplan always has been come out strong, plant his feet and throw combos like a boxer, until his opponent drops. He is not the most elusive striker (like an Anderson SIlva who is always moving about) but he has excellent head movement and quick reflexes that allow him to stay planted and not take a huge chunk of punishment.

Jardine is much more a of a kickboxer in that he uses a nice mix of kicks, which are devestating and pinpoint accurate, knees and his herky-jerky punching.  Though a very slow fighter he is unpredictable and unorthodox which can frustrate a lot of fighters.

Rampage should just overwhelm Jardine. It worked for Wanderlei, it worked for Houston Alexander. He is too slow to evade a full-on attack and his chin can’t take blows from guys that know how to throw them. Rampage has got a head made of iron and if taking a couple glancing blows from Rip Van Winkle in order to close the distance is required, I’m sure he won’t mind. If a Jackson hook can connect with Jardine his night will be over. However, if Jardine is somehow able to take a deal of punishment and keep coming, like Griffin, Jackson should just take him down. In the UFC, Rampage has shied away from his once ferocious ground and pound game he relied on in Pride. Outwrestling Jardine shouldn’t be that difficult for Jackson and when the Dean of Mean is on his back all his Parkinson-like striking won’t be so ‘confusing’ anymore.

Jardine on the other hand should pull a  Forrest Griffin and work leg kicks to the knees and side of Jackson. Rampage refuses to check leg kicks and if Jardine can take some power of of his punches by punishing his bottom half he may be able to survive a few more flurries from the ex-champ. Keeping a safe distance and peppering Jackson will keep Jardine ahead on the scorecards. He won’t be able to avoid Jackson completely but when he gets close Keith should fight for the Thai plume during any clinches work the knees then circle away and release.  Whatever he does Jardine can not get into a brawl with Rampage or he will need reconstructive face surgery Sunday morning.

Jardine should frustate Rampage for a round but then get caught just like Chuck.

Prediction: Quentin Jackson by TKO in the 2nd round.

- Sam Stilson