UFC 94 Predictions

For all the fanfare past superfights have received, tonight’s bout between BJ Penn and Georges St.-Pierre may in fact be the greatest matchup in UFC history. Two champions in their primes, are entering the cage to settle some bad blood that rose out of a controversial decision in their last fight.  MMA fans couldn’t ask for more, but in typical UFC fashion, more has been provided with a decent card of bouts leading up to Penn-St.-Pierre 2.

Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida

If it weren’t for the main event, this lightweight bout would be hands down Fight of the Night. Nate Diaz, a world class BJJ player, who has torn through opponents since winning the Ultimate Fighter is finally being given a step up in competition. Clay Guida, by no means an expert in any discipline save wrestling, is perhaps the most relentless fighter in the weight class and can overwhelm more skilled fighters simply with his exhausting pace. Just ask Mac Danzig.

In this fight, Diaz can’t allow himself to be bullied by Guida and needs to maintain distance with his quick striking.  If he can frustrate Guida’s shooting attempts by punishing him with kicks and jabs then circling away he can avoid being slammed into a dangerous position on the ground.

When this fight does eventually go to the ground, Guida needs to capitalize on his strength and size advantage and ground and pound Diaz with no reserve. He needs to be incredibly wary of getting caught in Diaz’s guard and should move to side control immediately.

In the end, despite Diaz’s slight frame and Guida’s berserker fight style, Nate is an incredibly tough fighter who should be able to withstand Guida’s punishment. He will eat punch after punch until Guida makes once mistake and sink in a submission for the win.

Prediction: Diaz by 3rd round submission

Karo Parisyan vs Dong Hyun Kim

Once a rising star in the welterweight division Karo Parisyan has lost almost all of his status and finds himself in Elvis Sinosic territory. A respected fighter used by Joe Silva to give ‘big name’ wins to up and coming rookies. Kim, who won a controversial split decision over Matt Brown recently, is undefeated and looking to make a splash on a huge PPV.

Parisyan is an extremely skilled fighter but lacks the ability to finish as evidenced by the myriad of decision wins on his record. Kim has shown promise in his first two UFC bouts but will have a tough time with Karo’s strength.

What could be an exciting display of throws, trips and submission attempts from two judo specialist will probably be a boring stalemate between two guys who lack a killer’s edge. Unless Kim can really rock Parisyan early on and fire ‘The Heat’ up, this fight will feature many standups due to nullified guards and a lot of kick checking on the feet. Look for Karo to control the pace due to his Octagon experience and get the decision nod.

Prediction: Karo Parisyan by unanimous decision

Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones
It has been a long wait for Bonnar to get back in the Octagon as a knee injury has kept the American Psycho out of action for a year and a half. In this bout against the undefeated but still green Jon Jones he is hoping to shake off the ring rust and get his name back into light heavyweight contention talks.

Jon Jones is a ‘natural athlete’ with a wrestling background and a penchant for unorthodox striking. What this really means is that he’s strong and quick but really has no idea how to fight. So while he may be willing to take risks and fight with passion, against a vet like Bonnar it also means he will be in big trouble.

Bonnar can’t get sucked into a brawl, no matter how much he’d love to. He needs to pick Jones apart with his excellent boxing and remain cool-headed, choosing his rushes carefully.

Jones should attempt to use his wrestling to take down Bonnar and control him. Bonnar does not have great takedown defense and if Jones can keep him on his back he can squeak out a decision the same way Rashad Evans did.

Bonnar should outclass Jones in this fight and either catch him in a sub in a ground scramble or simply outbox him. Barring a lucky punch from Jones or Bonnar gassing badly from ring rust, he should nab an easy win here.

Prediction: Bonnar by 2nd round submission

Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva

Two 13-0 Brazilians are attempting to earn a title shot with a win here and it’d be hard not to give them one if there is a decisive finish to this bout. Machida has long been criticized for his ‘elusive’ fight style but one can’t deny that he has soundly beat top calibre fighters in and out of the UFC. Silva has an exciting in-your-face fight style and KO’ing Machida, something Rich Franklin, BJ Penn and Tito Ortiz couldn’t do, would give him a lot of fodder for a title shot.

Other than perhaps Tito, Machida has never faced an aggressive, blitzing style of fighter. Though he’s handled plenty of excellent strikers no one has come charging out the gates at him. This is likely what he will face against Thiago Silva. Machida’s chin will be tested, and without a doubt we will see if Machida is really just ‘elusive’ or whether he runs when trouble comes around.

Silva is a BJJ black belt but we have really yet to see him on the ground. If his jiu-jitsu really is world class perhaps taking Machida to the mat and looking for submissions might be a good game plan if he can’t get an early KO from the feet. Machida is undoubtedly the best fighter Thiago has faced and he can’t come into this fight, cocky and stubborn, expecting another TKO.  He needs to be aggressive and control the pace of the fight. He can’t fall into Machida’s gameplan of counter-punching and shrugging off takedowns.

Silva definitely has a shot to pull off an upset here, but more than likely Machida will rise to the challenge and TKO a brawling, fence-swinging Silva.

Prediction: Lyota Machida by 2nd round TKO

BJ Penn vs. Georges St.-Pierre

The last time these guys fought BJ annihilated Georges in the first round with vastly superior striking. Georges decided he couldn’t hang with him on the feet and won the next two rounds by controlling BJ on the ground and negating his strikes. Georges looked outclassed but fought a smart fight against a lazy BJ Penn who didn’t respect GSP’s talent.

Since that fight, GSP has improved drastically and is now scary good. He is like a comic book superhero both in terms of physique and ability. His striking and BJJ are now both world-class and his wrestling isn’t far behind.

BJ too has undergone a renaissance as his once awful cardio can now be respected and his disregard for his opponent’s talents appears to have diminished. Seeing him absolutely destroy Sean Sherk and Joe Stevenson proved that he is without a doubt at the top of his game and hungry for the toughest opposition in the world.

Despite the striking clinic he displayed against Fitch and the head kick to Hughes, GSP is still an inferior striking to Penn. BJ is faster and hits harder. He can’t be hit as easily and has a stronger chin than GSP. If Georges plans to tango with BJ on the feet like he did in their last fight, expect him to look bloodied and battered by round two again.

GSP needs to take BJ down and take side control, the same way he shutdown Matt Serra. The problem with that however is BJ has perhaps the best takedown defense in MMA. His flexibility is unworldly and might give St.-Pierre fits, except for the fact that he took him down, several times in their last bout. There’s no reason to think he can’t do it again.

When on the ground BJ needs to pull guard and work submissions. Though Georges has a black belt he doesn’t have the same muscle memory as Penn nor the same encyclopedic knowledge of submissions or defenses. BJ can work off his back with ease or at least nullify Georges ground and pound and force a stand up where he will own him on the feet.

The last major factor in this fight is the fact that Georges has been KOed and BJ has not (save for a TKO loss to Hughes). With Penn out for blood and with his faster hands it isn’t outlandish to think he could KO Georges early on in the fight.

This fight is so evenly matched it’s ridiculous. Both fighters strengths cancel each other out. One might as well toss a coin. Though Georges is at this point the more talented fighter, BJ Penn wants this more. He is focused and determined and for once in his fight career facing a greater foe that he must truly dig deep to beat. This will be a war but BJ will come out on top.

Prediction: BJ Penn by 4th round TKO

- Sam Stilson