UFC 91 Predictions

The reason UFC 91 is the biggest MMA event in history is not because a Hall-of-Famer is fighting an ex-WWE ‘superstar’. Couture-Lesnar is the most important fight ever because it will ultimately prove or disprove the legitimacy of mixed martial arts. It will make or break the claim that MMA elitist have made ever since Royce Gracie won fight after fight in the early days of the sport; that no matter how big, strong or fast your opponent, if you know more about fighting, you can, and will beat him.

The rest of the card doesn’t even matter because who ever wins the headliner bout, is taking home a hell of a lot more than a golden belt. The future of two men’s careers and ultimate, the sport, hangs in the balance.

Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar

After a year-long layoff in his first fight back, Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture is being forced to fight a money-making machine rather than Big Nog (the sensible choice) who picked up the interim heavyweight belt in his absence. While the Lesnar fight is an obvious payday for the UFC, it should just be a minor detour for Couture on his route to Fedor right? Well, it’s not going to be that easy…

Despite both having impressive wrestling pedigrees you have to give the grappling edge to Lesnar based on his size alone. Sure Randy was an Olympic alternate, but against guys in his weight class, not silverback gorillas who outweigh him by 60 pounds. Brock showed against Herring that he has excellent ground control and being the much bigger man if he gets Randy down, he’ll keep him down until the bell.

Lesnar’s striking ability is still fairly unclear. In his debut against Mir, he punched like a scared little girl, frantically throwing rabbit punches and weak hammer fists when he should have been punishing Frank. Against Herring, well we’ve all seen the straight right that made Heath do a backflip. However, in a real stand-up battle against a quality striker, not a single shot lucky punch, Brock doesn’t have the chops and won’t last long before desperately trying to shoot. Randy always engages his opponents and will not run from Brock’s punches force him to put up or shut up.

Randy’s biggest weapon against Brock will be his excellent work in the clinch and his dirty boxing. He has been able to control men bigger than him in the past by clinching against the cage and using his sharp elbows, shoulders and quick uppercuts to wear down his opponents. Brock has never felt any punishment in the Octagon and if Randy can avoid takedowns and any bombs Lesnar throws while peppering him with jabs and kicks, by round 3 or 4, Brock’s speed and strength will be negated.

On paper, and looking at them standing side by side, Randy should lose. But we all saw Rocky 4. Everyone thought that Drago would destroy Balboa. He was a Russian-engineered killing machine. But Rocky refused to quit, refused to believe he ‘couldn’t win’ and he found a way to knock him out.

Prediction: Couture by unanimous decision, MMA lives on.