UFC 102 Predictions

The main event at UFC 102 is what many seem to be labeling a ‘win or retire’ fight between MMA legends Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Randy Couture. However, what everyone seems to be forgetting is that both of these men have only lost once in the last 3 years, to top ranked fighters no less. Instead what should be expected is MMA in its finest form; two of the greatest fighters in the world in an epic physical chess match.

Throw in the always entertaining ‘Dean of Mean’ Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva, an incredibly even middleweight top contender bout and the sadomasochism of Chris Leben and we’ve got one of the best cards of the year.

Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
Polish-Canadian Krzysztof Soszynski has quietly won 3 fights in a row in the Octagon and despite his alphabet soup name, a lot of people could be talking about him with an impressive win over Vera. Brandon on the other hand, once a highly touted heavyweight prospect has only seen his stock drop in recent years but looked sharp in his last bout.

Vera is not a very aggressive fighter choosing rather to stalk and counter his opponents. This has produced mixed results for the American. But against the always-forward style of Soszynski, well he couldn’t ask for a better opponent.

What this bout will come down to is whether Sozynski can handle the considerable talent leap in opposition and whether Vera can keep his composure and regain some of his earlier promise.

It’s a coin flip really , but Krzysztof probably knows what is at stake here and will come out with his heavy hands swinging and overwhelm a tentative Vera. While ‘The Polish Experiment’ won’t win by his trademark kimura, a TKO victory will have to suffice.

Prediction: Krystof Sozynski by TKO in the 2nd round.

Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia

When Royce Gracie got his brains bashed in by Matt Hughes at UFC 60, the notion that BJJ can conquer anything exited alongside Gracie’s relevance to sport. But here we are three years later and Demian Maia, a BJJ ace who tries to avoid ‘hurting his opponents,’ is perhaps one fight away from a world championship bout. He has tapped out five men in a row while hardly getting hit, proving himself something of an Anderson Silva on ground.

His opponent however is no Nate Quarry or Jason Macdonald, but rather former top contender Nate ‘The Great’ Marquardt. A training partner of Georges St-Pierre and one of the most well-rounded fighters in the middleweight division. Marquardt desperately wants another crack at Anderson Silva having held his own for oh, two minutes against the current champ.

The breakdown for this one is easy: if it goes to the ground…Marquardt loses. If it stays on the feet…Marquardt survives.

Despite his moniker, Nate Marquardt really isn’t a great fighter, but rather a really good one. Maia’s underrated boxing skills should allow him to survive long enough against Marquardt’s early assault but in the second round he should pull out a submission and emerge bloodied, but still unbeaten.

Prediction: Maia by submission in the 3rd round.

Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt
With so many intelligent, strategic fighters on this card the UFC obviously put this match together for the bloodthirsty dumb-dumbs that unfortunately keep this sport alive by purchasing PPVs.

Chris “Blocking Is For Pussies” Leben is about as exciting a fighter as there is in the UFC and unlike other granite-fisted goons (see Houston Alexander, Drew McFedries) he isn’t so one-dimensional that his fights seem pointless and choreographed. He simply likes to put on a show, and that often involves him getting his ass kicked or kicking ass, both scenarios being tremendously entertaining. He is in need of a win after getting embarrassed by Michael Bisping and therefore should be rearing to go.

Jake Rosholt however, well… he’s a great wrestler… and he could probably dry-hump the shit out of Chris Leben…but that’s not what Dana White is paying him for. Watch for Chris Tucker to stand over his body post-KO screaming “You got knocked the FUCK out!”

Prediction: Chris Leben by knockout in the 1st round.

Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva
Not particularly great at any one thing, except maybe looking like a Neo-Nazi Rip van Winkle, Keith Jardine has managed to stay relevant in the slaughterhouse called the 205-pound division, by being able to hang with pretty much anybody. Well, anybody not named Silva. The last time he faced someone with that ubiquitous Brazilian last name he had to attend therapy sessions at a clinic for rape victims. But Wanderlei, Thiago is not.

Despite his knockout power, Silva’s best offense against Jardine would be to take this fight to the ground. His black belt in BJJ would surely counter Jardine’s decent but rather rusty wrestling credentials and he’d be safe from Jardine’s herky-jerky leg kicks and Charlie horse hooks. However being a young, brash hothead and having just gotten his ass kicked by Lyoto Machida, Silva will probably come after Jardine with murderous intent. Unless he can catch him in the first couple of minute though Jardine should just frustate him en route to a unanimous decision win.

Prediction: Keith Jardine by unanimous decision

Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Two or three years ago, this fight could have rivaled Liddell vs. Silva in terms of dream matchups but much like that classic bout we’ll have to settle for a slightly second-rate version.

Much has been said of Nogueira’s sloppy performance against Frank Mir in which he was dropped multiple times before eventually succumbing to strikes. He looked slow, weathered and beaten before the first punch was thrown. Nogeuira has since admitted to being sick prior to the fight but one need only look at his previous fights against Tim Sylvia and Heath Herring in the UFC where Nogueira spent some time getting his face smashed, to see that maybe Minotauro is simply slowing within his new organization.

Couture on the other hand looked great in his last fight against a man who outweighed him by close to 50 pounds and was ten years his junior. Other than Frank Mir (the first time), Couture has probably fared best against current heavyweight champ Brock Lesnar.

Though Couture is no striking ace he can certainly hold his own standing with his solid boxing skills and fantastic clinch game. Minotauro isn’t really a knockout threat and is no more a Muay Thai assassin than Randy. Therefore one has to give the edge to Couture in standup simply for his devastating clinch game and dirty boxing skills.

On the ground however is where Minotauro holds a huge advantage. Sure Randy is a world-class wrestler but in the heavyweight division (where he’s the smallest man)  those skills aren’t quite as useful as they were at 205. Couple that with Nogueira’s world-class BJJ and things aren’t looking so great for Randy on the mat anymore.

Look for Randy to do what he does best, wear out his opponent by grinding him into the cage, smashing his face with elbows and sucking the will to live from his very being. Nogueira will be game for a couple rounds and threaten often with subs and some great back-and-forth action but won’t have enough time to pull a win out of his ass.

Prediction: Randy Couture by unanimous decision

- Sam Stilson (41-27)