UFC 100 Predictions

This weekend will mark perhaps the greatest weekend in MMA history as the UFC puts on its 100th show (ignoring all the Ultimate Ultimates, Ultimate Japan, Brazil and UFC 37.5). This milestone event celebrates not only the longevity of the promotion but signifies that MMA is a viable sport here to stay and that the UFC is now truly mainstream and no longer the backwoods snuff film-esque spectacle it was once thought to be.

In order to show their appreciation to the fans, the UFC have put together one of the deepest cards in history, where even the undercard is stocked with must-see matches. Two belt fights, a TUF coaches grudge match, some great contender bouts and Chuck Liddell’s forced retirement party all round out the PPV portion, which should be an absolute confetti party of violence.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher
Making his promotional debut Yoshihiro Akiyama, a star in Japan, is hoping to make it big in the US by dismantling middleweight gatekeeper Alan Belcher. Akiyama hasn’t lost a fight in 5 years (though two NCs mar his record) and has both world-class judo skills and fantastic striking.

Belcher has put together a 2-fight win streak as of late and has looked better each time he steps into the Octagon. His Muay Thai is top-level and he has a decent submission game to boot.

Akiyama would do best to take this fight to the ground. While he does have KO power in his hands and incredibly fast and crisp striking, in the past he has been overwhelmed in standup exchanges. His only loss came courtesy of a few knees to the head. Belcher would love to feed him a few Thai knees of his own and given the chance he could devastate him on the feet. Akiyama should use throws or trips from the clinch to get Belcher on his back and then work for a quick submission.

Belcher could pull off a huge upset here with a well-timed strike, but odds are Akiyama will impress and immediately join middleweight title contention talks.

Prediction: Yoshihiro Akiyama by 2nd round armbar

Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping
The Brit vs. the Bore. The Mouth vs. The Ears. What was initially a logical top contender fight has turned into a grudge match after the two TUF coaches grew tired of each other’s grating personalities and what was already an interesting fight should now be a great one. This is a classic grappler vs. striker matchup and will be decided by who can force the fight to play to the tune of their style.

While Hendo is famed for his right hand that crushed many an orbital bone in Pride he still remains a fairly sloppy striker. Rich Franklin effectively picked him apart on the feet and if it weren’t for the multiple eyepokes and takedowns Hendo would have lost that decision.  Dan needs to find a way to catch up to Bisping and drag his limey ass to the ground. From there his Olympic level wrestling skills should be able to keep him pinned to the mat where he can grind away until the final bell rings. It won’t be pretty but it will be decisive, and vintage Decision Dan.

Bisping is the younger, faster fighter who has great takedown defense, a competent ground game and a new love for Muay Thai that is downright scary at times. He certainly has the tools to defeat Henderson, but whether he can put actually pull it off is another story. Stick and move is his key to victory. In much the same fashion that he took apart Chris Leben, Bisping needs to get in and out of the pocket quickly while peppering Hendo’s face with quick jabs and crosses. He should avoid any sort of high kick and only use lower leg kicks to set up punching flurries. He won’t knock out Hendo as he’s predicted but he can certainly bust his face up and frustrate him to the point that he’ll start swinging his right wildly and making desperation shots to no avail.

This is a really tough one to call.

Prediction: Dan Henderson by cauliflower ear infection

Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago
Remember when everyone thought that Houston Alexander was for sure going to win the light heavyweight belt after he knocked out Keith Jardine? Then Rogan famously declared he was ‘the real deal’ after he annihilated Alessio Sakara? Yeah…then he lost three fights in a row. That’s kind of what’s going on with Paulo Thiago right now. Sure he knocked out Josh Koscheck, but what everyone seems to forget was Koscheck was slapping him around like pizza dough before he got that uppercut through. Thiago might have KO power and an excellent jiu-jitsu game, but a top contender, welterweight phenom? That’s about as likely as Houston Alexander learning what a kimura is.

Jon Fitch is a phenomenal wrestler, striker and MMA fighter. His only loss in 6 years was against GSP, one of the world’s greatest, and even he couldn’t stop him.

Fitch will probably beat Thiago up a bit on the feet then take him down and keep him down. Then he’ll perform some amateur phrenology with his fists on Thiago until the ref pulls him off.

If Thiago can pull off another knockout (or more likely a sub) over one of the top 5 welterweights then I can admit he might be the real deal but I just don’t see it happening, not to Fitch.

Prediction: Jon Fitch by 2nd round TKO

Georges St-Pierre vs. Thiago Alves
In what should be the fight of the night, GSP is facing an absolute beast in Thiago Alves, whose seven fight win streak is basically a highlight reel of perfect Muay Thai. While it is incredibly insulting to all-time great Matt Hughes to dub this fight as GSP’s greatest challenge ever, it is certainly no walk in the park for the two-time champ.

If Alves is going to win, it will be within the first two rounds. His standup skills are absolutely amazing as his Muay Thai is probably top three in the entire UFC. The way he throws kicks and knees is so brutal and he can knock out nearly anyone at any moment. That being said GSP is a karate master standing up and can certainly fire back at Alves. Takedown defense should be the number one thing on Alves’ mind as hitting the mat with the French-Canadian will effectively end any hope he has of winning. GSP has been knocked out before and a strong flurry or a short knee intercepting a takedown from Thiago could put his lights out again.

GSP and Greg Jackson are master strategists. That’s how they were able to make BJ Penn look like a hack and it will be how they shut down Alves too. Clinching against the fence nullified BJ’s standup but against a Muay Thai guy, clinching might not be so smart. GSP should instead rush in on Alves with Superman punches and quick flurries that will momentarily put him on the defensive then quickly shoot for a takedown. From there he can ground and pound or look for submissions. A straight-up wrestling game will expose GSP to easy knees and post-sprawl counters, therefore he needs to mix up his attack and use his wrestling in a much more tactical fashion.

This fight could and should be epic but GSP feels a little too invincible these days to lose his belt. After grabbing a late TKO, GSP should feel confident enough to call out Anderson Silva in his post-fight interview and we all can have a simultaneous orgasm at the prospect of that superfight.

Prediction: GSP by 3rd round TKO

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank MIr
After the reffing disaster that marred their first encounter one had to assume this rematch would happen eventually. But to have it be the main event of UFC 100 to unify the heavyweight belts, well, the only thing more exciting would be if the whole thing was scripted and it was some sort of torturous barbed wire cage match and Mankind showed up out of nowhere and knocked them both out with rusty lawn chairs then the Undertaker defiled their unconscious corpses while Rob Zombie blared from the speakers. Or not…

The big difference between this fight and the first one is that both fighters have improved every aspect of their game. Mir who once had the gas tank of a lawnmower, now feels confident going all 5 rounds and his boxing, once a low point in his game is now crisp and fluid and something to fear. Lesnar on the other hand no longer fights like a baby gorilla clutching to its mother’s back. Against Couture he used a wide variety of boxing and kickboxing techniques, some decent clinch striking and managed to outwrestle ‘The Natural’. That’s saying a lot for a guy who looked like a hysterical woman beating up her boyfriend with her purse in his Octagon debut.

Standing up, Lesnar has the advantage. He is stronger, almost as quick as Mir, and just not the kind of guy you want to get into a fist fight with. Sure Mir’s boxing looked great against Minotauro but Big Nog can’t make you do a backflip with a single punch. If Lesnar’s going to win it will be by shrugging off Mir’s takedowns and standing up immediately if he pulls guard, then calmly but still aggressively punching him into unconsciousness.

Mir should not even consider striking with Lesnar until at least the 3rd round, should it make it that far. He needs to pull guard from the clinch or somehow trick Lesnar into taking him down. In their first fight, even as Lesnar bitchslapped his head with hammerfists, Mir was composed and working submissions on the ground and finally caught him with a kneebar. Which means, Mir can handle some ground and pound from Brock if it allows him to work his top-notch BJJ game.  While Lesnar may not be a complete submission dummy 2 years into his MMA career, he is not going to be able to stop a black belt from breaking off a limb.

If this bout goes into the championship rounds we might see a very different fight emerge. Brock’s punches will be thrown with less power and less accuracy and Mir may no longer have the energy to fight off a Lesnar takedown, slam or throw. Gameplans may be thrown out the door and who knows what might happen then.

Mir has a way bigger chance to win this fight than most pundits are giving him credit for and if he won once who’s to say he can’t do it again?

Prediction: Frank Mir by 2nd round submission

- Sam Stilson (37-26)